Protection pays back across seasons, not in one move.

You manage the fourth estuary on a migratory route. Each season, choose protection or development simultaneously and read three regional strategies. Then test whether one false signal destroys trust built through repetition.

7 seasons1 move each1 noisy season

GAME THEORY YOU WILL LEARN

Iterated prisoner's dilemma: learn the shadow of the future, reciprocity, reputation, and limited forgiveness under noisy observation.

Four regional delegates gather around a migratory flyway map

Four regions share a goal but follow different response rules

The first move and response rule on each portrait are the rulebook for predicting next season—not decoration.

Hana

Northern breeding grounds

Strategy: Reciprocal: protects first, then responds to the previous season
Fear: Paying protection costs while others keep developing
First move: Protect
Response rule: Next season, mirrors your observed previous move

Mira

Central stopover wetland

Strategy: Cautious: protects when a cooperative history is verified
Fear: Trusting a mistaken signal and being exploited
First move: Develop
Response rule: Protects only if you protected and at least 3/4 stops were protected last season

Samir

Southern wintering grounds

Strategy: Generous: does not retaliate after one defection
Fear: Repeatedly having protection exploited
First move: Protect
Response rule: Forgives one development move; develops after two in a row

You

Fourth-estuary manager

Goal: Balance local prosperity and bird survival
Temptation gap: Develop +3 vs protect −2: a five-point current temptation
Success condition: Finish with Birds 64+ · Prosperity 48+ · Trust 58+